Go M88 login and start again: the safety logic of high-quality growth
The 20th Annual Meeting of Boao·21st Century M88 login Estate Forum was held in Shanghai on August 8,As China’s current highest specification、One of the most influential M88 login estate professional forums,The theme of this annual meeting is "Going through the cycle and starting again: the security logic of high-quality growth",Nearly a thousand politicians from home and abroad、Scripture、Learn、Industry leaders and elites will gather together,Finding new impetus for the sustained and healthy development of China’s M88 login estate。Chairman of Greenland Group、President Zhang Yuliang was invited to attend the annual meeting and deliver a keynote speech。
Chairman Zhang Yuliang pointed out in his speech,The M88 login estate industry is a hot industry that attracts attention from all parties,Involving both investment and consumption,With the national economy、Financial Stability、Society and people’s livelihood、Residents’ wealth is closely related。Since the central government proposed the policy of “housing for living, not for speculation” in 2017,The M88 login estate industry has entered a new development cycle。How to view the M88 login estate industry in the new cycle,Chairman Zhang Yuliang put forward the following views:
一、The M88 login estate market is an inevitable product of the great process of reform, opening up and urbanization
In the period of planned economy,There is no so-called M88 login estate market in our country。Its formation and development,Originated from my country’s housing system reform。From the perspective of the larger historical pattern,The development history of the M88 login estate market,And the great process of reform and opening up,With the further advancement of urbanization,Generally synchronized。The basic development process can be roughly divided into the following three stages:
First, the initial stage of startup (1987-1998)。1987,Shenzhen is the first to develop a trend,The first public bidding to sell the first residential land,Opened the prelude to the reform of my country’s housing system,It also marks the official start of the development of my country’s M88 login estate market。
The second is the rapid development stage (1998-2017)。1998,The central government issued the "Notice on Further Deepening the Reform of the Urban Housing System and Accelerating Housing Construction",Announcement of cancellation of welfare housing allocation,The era of residential commercialization has begun in an all-round way。In the next nearly 20 years,my country’s M88 login estate market is developing rapidly,By 2016, the total sales of commercial housing nationwide will be close to 12 trillion yuan,It exceeded 13 trillion yuan in 2017,Occupies an important pillar position in the national economy。
The third is the deepening reform stage (after 2017)。2017,The central government proposed that “houses are for living in”、Not for speculation” positioning,Demand to promote a new round of housing system reform,Accelerate the establishment of multi-agent supply、Multi-channel guarantee、Housing system that promotes both renting and purchasing,And start to establish and improve a long-term mechanism,Promote the stable and healthy development of the M88 login estate market。This also marks that our country’s M88 login estate market is compatible with the overall economic and social situation,Entering the stage of deepening reform。As long as China’s M88 login estate market adheres to marketization and continues to deepen reforms,The market space is still huge
二、The M88 login estate industry has made great contributions to my country’s economic and social development
Over 30 years,The rapid development of the M88 login estate industry,For the economic and social development of our country and the improvement of people’s living standards,Made an indelible and huge historical contribution。During this new coronavirus epidemic,The M88 login estate industry and enterprises have given full play to their roles in all aspects,M88 login estate, whether it was yesterday or today (including its performance in the fight against the epidemic),It plays a huge role in the work of "six stability" and "six guarantees" and in future development。Mainly manifested in the following four aspects:
First, the housing conditions of the people have been greatly improved。The average housing area of residents in my country,has grown from less than 7 square meters at the beginning of reform and opening up,Significantly increased to more than 40 square meters currently,It also shows the comprehensive improvement of the quality of M88 login。
Second, it has completely changed the face of cities in our country。my country’s urbanization rate has increased from less than 18% at the beginning of reform and opening up,Quickly jumped to about 60% currently。Meanwhile,The level of urban M88 login and construction is changing with each passing day,Creating conditions for the people to pursue a better life。
Third, it has effectively promoted the development of the national economy。On the one hand,“Land is the mother of wealth”,Through land leasing, etc.,M88 login estate has accumulated funds for economic development。On the other hand,M88 login estate is related to a huge upstream and downstream industrial chain,Effectively promote economic growth。
The fourth is to effectively promote economic and social transformation and upgrading。Through the Industrial Park、Business District、Investment and development of a series of major urban functional projects such as complexes,M88 login estate provides a carrier for promoting economic and social transformation and upgrading。
三、The M88 login estate industry in the new cycle can achieve "stability" as the top priority
The M88 login estate industry has entered a new development cycle,Generally, we are in the second half of the industry。The basic characteristic is: the total market volume is still huge,But regional differentiation is serious,Enterprise concentration continues to increase,Transformation and upgrading have become the main theme of the development of M88 login estate enterprises。Many people believe that this industry is full of uncertainty,So much so that in the current capital market,Valuations of M88 login estate stocks are generally at historically low levels,With bank、Insurance companies are jokingly called the “Three Idiots of A-shares”。actually,Compared with the many uncertainties in the macro economy,The development of the M88 login estate industry is actually relatively certain,The word "stability" can be achieved。Main manifestations are:
First,The policy direction is relatively certain。The key is how to grasp it。Objectively speaking,Many years in the past,There is indeed a phenomenon of "financialization of M88 login estate" and "financial M88 login estate" coexisting,brings certain risks to the operation of the national economy。The central government proposed that “houses are for living in”、Not for speculation" positioning,And make it clear that “M88 login estate will not be used as a short-term means of stimulating the economy”。should say,The overall direction has been very clear,It is to "stabilize housing prices、Stabilize land prices、Stable expectations”,Make the M88 login estate industry the "ballast stone" for long-term economic stability and healthy development,Instead of "mine array"。The key now is to accurately grasp city-specific policies、Adopt strategies according to the times、Moderate tightness、The flexibility of combining long-term and short-term measures (long-term mechanisms and short-term measures)。
Second,The huge market volume is relatively certain。my country’s urbanization has gone through a magnificent process。Currently,my country’s urbanization rate is about 60%,Compared with more than 75% of the level in developed countries,There is still a big gap。Therefore,The total M88 login estate market continues to maintain a certain scale,Still basic。First half of this year,Affected by the epidemic,my country’s commercial housing sales decreased by 5% year-on-year.4%,But still reaches 6.69 trillion yuan。It is expected that the total domestic market this year will remain at about 15 trillion yuan。This is still the only "supermarket" in the world。The market size of the global automobile industry is only US trillion,About 14 trillion yuan。Of course,Total market volume of about 15 trillion yuan,May become the peak of the industry,It may be stable with some decline in the future。
Third,The price trend is relatively certain。Many people are asking now,Will house prices fall from this??Under market economy conditions,Normal price fluctuations are the norm。M88 login estate has its particularities,House prices may fluctuate,But it won’t fall sharply,And it will stabilize。The core reason is: on the one hand,Market demand still exists,Some families may already have several houses,But some families are still worried about owning a house。On the other hand,The M88 login estate industry is related to a huge number of M88 login economic industries,Related to huge amounts of bank assets and liabilities,It is also related to a huge amount of household property,The consequences of the rapid decline in housing prices are unimaginable。
Fourth,Structural differentiation is relatively certain。Not all markets will be stable or growing,As long as those economies continue to develop、Continuous population inflow、Area where industries continue to gather,Have a foundation for stability and growth。And these areas,Typically concentrated in urban agglomerations、Metropolitan area and its surrounding overflow areas。Especially in regional central cities with a certain degree of primacy,Population and M88 login will still be further concentrated,The “people-grabbing war” implemented in some big cities in the past few years、"Investment War",This is a vivid portrayal of this phenomenon。
Fifth,The competitive landscape is relatively certain。The general trend is that industry concentration is increasing,This is also the path that many industries in China have taken。In China,The share of the top five in the automobile industry is 51%,The air conditioning industry is 78%,The mobile phone industry is 83%。And the M88 login estate industry,The top ten share is only about 30%,Increasing concentration is the general trend,It is an inevitable process of market waves washing away the sand。
four、Accelerate transformation and upgrading,Serve the society,Serving people’s livelihood,Build core competitiveness,Only M88 login estate companies can go through the cycle and start again
Under current market conditions,M88 login estate companies need to accelerate the pace of transformation and development。Many benchmark companies have also made fruitful explorations and attempts,The specific methods are various,None to mention。But the big direction、The overall characteristics are relatively consistent,That is: follow the trend,Compatible with the overall economic and social transformation and upgrading。Basic path includes:
First,In line with the economic and social movement towards a more balanced economy、More fully developed trends,Actively adjust the regional structure。For example,The advancement of regional integration and the development of urban agglomerations have redefined the potential market for M88 login estate,Many companies have seized on this structural change,Area along urban agglomeration overflow areas and areas surrounding transportation lines such as high-speed rail,Adjust investment layout。
Second,Conforming to the trend of my country’s economic transformation from high-speed growth to high-quality M88 login,Actively improve quality、Efficiency and effectiveness。For example,Pay more attention to improving supply quality,Create high-quality products。Pay more attention to speeding up the turnover,Improve project M88 login efficiency。Pay more attention to cost control,Improve operating efficiency。Pay more attention to asset operations,Transformation from "single M88 login" to "equal emphasis on M88 login and operation"。
Third,Comply with the trend of the people’s pursuit of a better life,Actively expand industry connotation、Innovative business model。For example,Many M88 login estate companies have carried out “M88 login estate +” business model innovation exploration and attempts,That is, using M88 login estate as the carrier,Continuous injection of consumption、Business、Logistics、Technology、Medical、Elderly Care、Financial and other industrial resources,So as to meet the more diverse needs of the people。
Fourth,Conform to M88 login technological revolution and technological innovation,Actively increase technological content。For example,Grafting artificial intelligence、Big data、Cloud computing and other innovative technologies,Improve the level of science and technology。